After more than a decade in the doldrums, Chief Executive’s monthly survey of CEO confidence finds the economic outlook of America’s corporate leaders nearing its most optimistic since we began the monthly survey in 2003, up 5% month over month in December and 7% since the same time last year.
This makes 2017 the second most optimistic year we’ve ever recorded, registering an average forward-looking confidence of 7.08 out of 10, surpassed only by the 2004 level of 7.47.
The approaching passage of the GOP’s business-centric tax bill appears to be the main source for the rising optimism. The last time confidence levels soared this high President Bush was showering the corporate world with a slew of new tax cuts in 2004. But it isn’t tax cuts alone driving CEO confidence. Just as in 2004, this year has been marked by falling unemployment, flat interest rates and inflation, and a soaring stock market.
In another barometer of perceived economic health, our survey of 267 CEOs also found two-thirds plan to add to their workforce in 2018, betting on business conditions continuing to improve in the year ahead. Only 5% of CEOs forecast a decrease in headcount.
CEOs are also expecting to increase both profitability and revenue, with only 9% now anticipating a decrease in profitability and 5% in revenue, compared to 15% and 12% respectively last January.
Despite the apparent goldilocks economy, some worries persist. “Cybersecurity and adversaries are the top concerns,” commented a mid-market professional services CEO who foresees increases of more than 20% in revenue, employees, capex and profits in 2018.
“I think there is a massive wave of digital disruption in front of us,” wrote another mid-market CEO who believes the retail sector will continue to be impacted by new emerging technology and digitally disruptive business models.
The president of a small tech company says it’s the regulatory landscape that is the biggest hurdle ahead, as it remains too cumbersome, preventing smaller players from focusing their efforts on strategy and gaining market share. A manufacturing president had echoed a similar feeling earlier this year, stating that the mere possibility of reducing the number and reach of regulations should be sufficient cause for increased optimism.
And large companies may indeed have more to look forward to, as reflected by CEOs’ optimism in future business conditions, which has jumped 17% since January.
About the CEO Confidence Index
The CEO Confidence Index is America’s largest monthly survey of chief executives. Each month, Chief Executive surveys CEOs across corporate America, at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data.
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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1:00 - 5:00 pm
Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process
Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:
Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns. They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning. Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process. This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented. If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form. The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.
2:00 - 5:00 pm
Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations.
Limited space available.
10:30 - 5:00 pm
General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
Sponsored by UBS
General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.
The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.
