Three Questions Every Innovation-Minded CEOs Should Ask
January 2 2009 by Scott Anthony
Growth was hard enough before the world economy hit speed bumps in 2008. With industries colliding, competitors springing up in every corner of the globe, and the pace of change intensifying, companies have had to work harder and harder to maintain their competitive position, let along improve it.
Consider Microsoft. A decade ago the only threat to the company seemed to be the prospect of a breakup orchestrated by the U.S. Justice Department. The company has grown steadily over the past decade, from $15 billion in revenues in 1998 to $60 billion in revenues in its most recently completed fiscal year. It has entered new markets, like mobile, video gaming, and home entertainment. Its reward? A stock price that has essentially treaded water and widespread concern that there is no way the company can counter the threat posed by Google.
Or think about beleaguered newspaper companies. The emergence of the Internet in the late 1990s seemed to be an obvious threat to most companies. Yet by 2002 most newspaper companies had launched successful Web sites and enjoyed operating margins approaching 30 percent. Today the industry is fighting for its very survival. Three short years ago Lee Enterprises purchased Pulitzer”"a company two-thirds its size”"for roughly $1.5 billion. Today, the combined entity is worth about $150 million.
In today’s difficult market conditions there is an overwhelming pressure to focus almost exclusively on near-term actions at the expense of initiatives that promise prosperity several years down the road.
But Schumpeter’s gales of creative destruction have never blown fiercer. Smart executives know that adopting a series of short-term strategies is tantamount to corporate suicide. They know that achieving material, organic growth through innovation is no longer an interesting experiment but a strategic imperative. Companies that don’t develop the ability to improve what they have and create what they don’t face the prospects of dwindling growth, tumbling profits, and ultimate destruction.
Meeting the innovation imperative can seem like an insurmountable task. After all, innovation feels fuzzy, unpredictable, and fraught with failure.
The good news for innovation-minded executives is that decades of research have highlighted clear patterns and principles to improve the predictability of innovation. Further, companies like P&G, Dow Corning, Johnson & Johnson, General Electric,
Innovation remains a complicated subject. But we have found that addressing the following three questions can help Chief Executive Officers focus their effort.
1. Does my company have an Innovation Strategy?
To paraphrase baseball legend Yogi Berra, “If you don’t know where you are going, you might not get there.”VbCrLf Unfortunately, too many companies approach innovation this way. They tell a group of people “It’s innovation time!”VbCrLf and expect great results. That rarely works”"especially when times are tight and frivolity is tough to tolerate. Instead, companies need to have an innovation strategy that details clear targets and tactics.
Targets help internal innovators know what they are shooting for. A reasonable starting place is to imagine what success looks like five years in the future. What are your target revenues and profits? Then think about the sources of growth. How much can you reasonably expect your core business to contribute? What contribution can you reasonably expect from what is already in your development pipeline? One tip here: make sure to risk-adjust your pipeline. If you assume all of your projects will succeed, you are being wildly optimistic. Finally, calculate the gap (and it will almost always be a gap) between where your projections suggest you will be and where you want to be. That gap is your target for new innovation efforts.
One cable broadcaster conducted a gap-calculating exercise in late 2006 on the heels of record-breaking financial performance. The company had all of its executives come up with a set of reasonable estimates for key variables that drove the financial performance of the business. It had executives detail what were plausible ranges for each of those variables in 2011.
It fed the ranges into a simple simulation model, and found that there was a frighteningly high chance that it could miss its projected 2011 earnings by close to $500 million, an event that would have devastating consequences.