After a rocky start to the year, business sentiment among CEOs is heading toward a strong finish to 2025—though, many warn, what happens next is still anyone’s guess. 

Chief Executive’s November CEO Confidence Index, fielded the first week of November, finds CEOs’ rating of the current business environment up 3 percent in November, adding to the prior month’s 11 percent gain. At 5.9, measured on a 10-point scale, it is the second highest level of the year, only surpassed by January (6.3). 

CEOs’ outlook for the year ahead also improved in our November polling, by 4 percent to 6.2 out of 10. This is the third best reading of the year after July (6.3) and January (6.9)—and a significant climb from its 5.0 trough in March. 

Those optimistic for continued improvements into 2026 say they’ve begun to notice increasing demand in recent weeks. ‘We are seeing capital projects that were on hold are now starting to be released as orders,’ said one manufacturing CEO. 

Others say lower interest rates, increased clarity around tariffs, improving inflation and the overall resilience of the economy and the stock market are driving their confidence that conditions will further ameliorate in the year ahead. 

“I believe that 2026 will generally be a great year for most companies,” said Raymond J. Pekowski, CEO of event and trade show management company The Expo Group. “The country will be celebrating its 250-year anniversary and the changes this administration has made will be in fully implemented, resulting in more freedom coupled with less taxes.” 

Despite the optimistic forecasts, many CEOs expressed concern over how tariffs are negatively affecting orders and delaying lead times—particularly among manufacturers. 

“The underlying business is there, but tariffs are delaying investment,” said Jeff Hand, CEO of Ross Operating Valve Company. 

“It would be much better if it were not for the tariff situation which is hindering businesses,” echoed Rob Wassmer, CEO of KNF Neuberger. 

“In the industrial manufacturing space, the uncertainty around the supply chain/tariffs and what that looks like in a month, let alone a year, makes it difficult to forecast,” commented another. 

Overall, 27 percent of CEOs mentioned tariffs or trade in their forecast, 12 percent of which were within the manufacturing industry. 

The data finds important variances in sentiment when looking at other sectors, too—and most point the finger at the tariffs situation as well. Retail/trade CEOs, for instance, gave the lowest forecasts this month, rating current conditions at 5 out of 10 and forecasting them to deteriorate to 4.4 in the year ahead. 

“Tariffs and insane prices for commercial rent are horrible for my business,” said one of the sector’s CEOs. “Combine that with high interest and a local government that smothers small business, it is hard to be optimistic.” 

Several others in his sector agree. “Our costs have gone sky high. Material costs, insurance costs, shipping costs,” said one CEO, adding: “Our customer base is unsure of economic conditions.” 

The sentiment was shared across other sectors, too. “I am by nature an optimist,” said John H Zenger, CEO of leadership development firm Zenger Folkman. “Things will work out in the long run, but the short-term with Trump is really grim.” 

Then, there are some who are enjoying the pickup in consumer demand amid lower rates. Travel and leisure CEOs provided the most optimistic outlook this month, forecasting business conditions will rise from their current rating of 8.3 out of 10 to 8.8 by this time next year. 

Jennifer Tombaugh, CEO of Tauck, a U.S.-based company that offers guided tours and cruises around the world, said she has observed “strong economic momentum in luxury travel,” though she tapers her outlook due to the “risk of disruption from global events.” 

Overall, nearly half of the 232 CEOs polled forecast improvements in business conditions in the year ahead, up from 41 percent in October. A quarter (24 percent) expect conditions to deteriorate, down from 26 percent, and 29 percent simply anticipate flat conditions for some time still. 

Those numbers have improved significantly from the tariffs-induced trough in March, but they remain off their highs for the year: 58 percent expected improvements back in July, when CEOs expected to finally be able to get back to business once the tariffs deadline given by the Trump administration would pass. 

RECESSION FORECASTS 

The overall proportion of CEOs who expect a recession in the next six months continues to drop and is now at its lowest level of the year (22 percent). It reached 62 percent in April, which was its peak for 2025.  

Now 50 percent expect economic growth for the near term—a significant increase from just two months ago (39 percent). 

THE YEAR AHEAD 

Looking more specifically at how all this will impact their respective companies, CEOs report: 

• 70 percent anticipate increasing revenues in the year ahead, up from 60 percent who forecasted growth one month prior. 

• 59 percent expect to increase profitability, up vs. 54 percent in October. 

• 43 percent plan to increase capital expenditures, vs. 37 percent in October. 

• 43 percent plan to add to their headcount, up from 34 percent last month. 

CEOs polled also shared that despite narrower profit margins in 2025, increasing prices continues to be a challenge: 20 percent say they don’t plan to increase prices in 2026—and another 50 percent say that if they do, it will be by less than 5 percent overall. 

Chief Executive Group’s annual Financial Performance Benchmarks for U.S. Companies offers a highly detailed look into companies’ profit forecasts and pricing strategy for 2026. Click here to download your copy.