Business conditions may not be perfect, or even great. But whatever happens next, America’s CEOs can handle it. This volatile year proved it.
That sentiment is the big takeaway from Chief Executive’s December CEO Confidence Index, fielded the first week of December, finds CEOs’ outlook for the year ahead improved by 2 percent from last month, to 6.4 out of 10 in our December polling, continuing a positive streak from October—a total gain of 15 percent over the third quarter.
The poll also finds their rating of the current business environment improving, up 2 percent in December. At 6.0, measured on a 10-point scale, it is the second highest level of the year, only surpassed by January (6.3/10).
CEOs who are optimistic that things will improve by year-end 2026 cite more clarity on tariffs, controlled inflation, lower interest rates and anticipated investments to business growth as well as tax cuts. They communicate a growing assuredness in their companies’ ability to adapt to various situations after a turbulent 2025, where many learned how to best navigate the uncertain environment.
“We have a roadmap to import tariff craziness,” says Dan Reinhart, CEO of Salem Fabrication Technologies Group.
Matthew Hubbard, CEO of Continental Services, a company in hospitality and managed food service, agrees. “Businesses were caught flat footed in 2025,” he says, “and will not make that mistake again in 2026.”
Many CEOs we polled remain cautious of continued political instability and tariffs—and forecast weakening consumer confidence which could affect their revenue and bottom line. “Consumer spend is going to continue to decline,” says David Henz, CEO of Summit Seed Coatings, an industrial manufacturing firm.
Timothy Bowe, CEO of professional services firm Evergreen Technology, agrees. By this time next year, he expects the economy to be worse for a host of reasons: “macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty and volatility. Large amount of price pressure built up in the supply chain. Forward looking concerns about inconsistency of US policy impacting both domestic and global markets.”
Overall, a smaller proportion of the 272 CEOs we polled in December forecast improvements in business conditions in the year ahead compared to November—down to 44 percent from 47 percent—even as the percentage who forecast worsening conditions fell from 24 percent in November to 21 percent this month. About 35 percent forecast conditions will continue on their current path.
“Everything I am seeing is flat. It will take a while before the companies that say they are investing in US manufacturing actually get factories up and online. When that happens, we will see an uptick in the economy,” says Justin Hogarth, CEO of Lynco USA, an industrial manufacturing company.
RECESSION FORECASTS
The overall proportion of CEOs who expect a recession in the next six months remained stable since last month at 22 percent, the lowest proportion of the year. It reached 62 percent in April, its peak for 2025. Now 52 percent expect economic growth for the near term, up by 2 percentage points since November.
THE YEAR AHEAD
Looking more specifically at how all this will impact their respective companies, CEOs report:
- 75 percent anticipate increasing revenues in the year ahead, up from 70 percent who forecasted growth one month prior.
- 67 percent expect to increase profitability, up vs. 59 percent in November.
- 42 percent plan to increase capital expenditures, vs. 43 percent in November.
- 46 percent plan to add to their headcount, up from 43 percent last month.
Chief Executive Group’s annual Financial Performance Benchmarks for U.S. Companies offers a highly detailed look into companies’ profit forecasts and pricing strategy for 2026. Click here to download your copy.
