Although recent months have been overcast with the shadow of government shutdowns, continued tariff negotiations and legislative change, U.S. manufacturers report they are ending the year on an upbeat note. Confidence has risen for the third month in a row, and manufacturing CEOs say they are optimistic for what is to come in 2026.
That’s according to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index Survey, fielded over the first week of December, in which U.S. manufacturers rate current business conditions a 5.8 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. Manufacturing CEOs are nearly on par with the figure they provided before the March 2025 nosedive in confidence (6.0/10), suggesting that they have almost entirely recovered by year’s end.
Future forecasts are just as optimistic: Respondents project improving conditions, expecting a rise to 6.3 out of 10 by this time next year. Though just marginally up 1 percent since November, projections for the year ahead have been steadily improving since September. They forecast the same number this month as their non-manufacturing peers, closing a gap that had been noticeably large over the year.
Most CEOs attribute their year-end optimism to expected returns in the new year, along with proactive measures taken by their companies to broaden influence.
Dennis Todd, CEO of specialty products firm Wear-Concepts, reports “many capital projects were put on hold [in 2025] as a wait and see [for] how the tariffs affected sales. In 2026, I see some of the capital projects that were postponed set up to be done in 2026.”
Gerry Lamberti, CEO of parts manufacturer Supersprings International, shares in this optimism, and says his firm has been “offsetting tariffs by going after new markets.”
Recession forecasts are the most positive they have been in months—even more so than for non-manufacturing organizations. 55 percent of manufacturers expect to see some kind of economic growth within the next six months, an increase of 4 percent since November.
Though the proportion of CEOs expecting to see economic decline (about one-fourth of those polled) into the new year is shrinking, they are still a substantial minority.
Andrew Warrington, CEO of heavy-industrial manufacturer UCC Environmental, shares that the “erratic nature of regulations on trade, international relations, environmental and other policies [are] impacting business confidence” for some organizations.
A further analysis comparing the recession forecasts of industrial manufacturers and consumer manufacturers illuminates that more of this negative sentiment can be attributed to the latter. Twenty-four percent of manufacturers within the consumer sector forecast some kind of economic decline over the next six months, in comparison to just 20 percent of their industrial peers.
The CEO of a large-sized consumer manufacturing firm clarifies this disparity: “Current consumer skepticism coupled with debt accumulation … make me nervous about the next 6 months.”
Another consumer manufacturer agrees, sharing that there has been a “step back in [the] consumer spending market basket.”
The split between manufacturing firms with global operations and those that are solely domestic has changed since last month, with a larger proportion of global manufacturers forecasting some kind of economic growth into 2026. Fifty-six percent expect growth, in comparison to 55 percent of domestic-exclusive organizations.
Thomas Flynn, CEO of international equipment attachments manufacturer Consolidated Equipment Group, shares that certain global pressures have been alleviated as of late: “Our industry is improving and appears to be beyond the oversupply issues experienced in the past few years.”
THE YEAR AHEAD
Revenues and profits are significantly up this month, as is expected for end-of-year forecasts.
- 73 percent of manufacturers expect to increase their profits in the year ahead, up 25 percent since last month.
- 78 percent expect to increase their revenues, up 16 percent since last month.
- 43 percent expect to deploy more capital next year, down 4 percent since November.
- 43 percent expect to add to their headcount over the next year, down 8 percent since last month.
About the CEO Confidence Index
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
