Will The ‘Davos Effect’ Boost Trump’s Standing?

Will the Davos Effect become the tipping point for a reversal of President Trump’s long and winding road to the most unpopular Presidency in recent history?

There is a new cognitive bias. Call it the Davos Effect.

The Swiss alpine village of Davos enjoys a subarctic climate. That makes it an ironic location to debate global warming, as a cadre of international elites did at the World Economic Forum annual meeting.

But the real irony was the warm reception given to Donald Trump’s keynote address. Could this be a sign that Trump has matured? Or was it “The Davos Effect” — if you survive a media onslaught, notoriety turns into celebrity?

Will the Davos Effect become the tipping point for a reversal of President Trump’s long and winding road to the most unpopular Presidency in recent history?

Trump and Davos are two phenomena I have had first-hand experience with during my career. I have known Trump since the 90’s when I brought him into Forbes for a chat with our editors about how he had (once again) amassed a billion-dollar fortune. (In New York’s real estate community, the Forbes rich list was your resume).

“Inviting Trump to the Forum was an obvious thing to do, as everyone knows wherever ‘The Donald’ goes, media follows.”

Every year I would attend the World Economic Forum where I wined and dined the superstar elite at the Forbes party held at the Belvedere Hotel. I even spent a bizarre moment negotiating to leave Forbes to become a partner of Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum.

Davos is an eponym for the World Economic Forum, like Hollywood for the film industry. It sits at the epicenter of globalization. Its followers earnestly believe they have the obligation to make a better world through a conflicted mix of corporate capital and social progressivism. In other words, everything Trump’s supporters mistrust.

Inviting Trump to the Forum was an obvious thing to do, as everyone knows wherever “The Donald” goes, media follows. The Forum is nothing if not media savvy. The founder, Klaus Schwab, is known as a global thinker. But his secret weapon is he is a consummate deal maker who labored for decades turning a low key conference into a shadow United Nations and himself into the Wizard of Davos.

Schwab built the Forum on ingenious attention to customer service for elites. They like to meet with other elites, and everything at Davos is arranged to make this happen instantly (through their own Facebook like platform he invented decades ago) and safely: the Swiss guards around Davos make the Vatican look sleepy.

Schwab doesn’t want to be a reigning leader as much as he likes the role of rainmaker. He recognized long ago that he is the dealer in a high stakes geopolitical blackjack game that brings some disagreeable characters to the table. Schwab’s role isn’t to promote one over the other or to like anyone in particular, just to keep the game going until he hits 17.

But what effect did Davos have on Trump? By that, I am not referring to a real effect on his thinking, although being invited to an elite throng of world leaders may appeal to his ego, and could get him to behave (for a while, at least).

The real effect is on the media’s perception of Trump, or more accurately, an effect on the media’s cognitive bias. There are several biases at play here, just like in a card game, and each one helps us to understand why the media saw Trump one way and may see him differently now.

  1. Expert Bias: We believe what we think we know, and the media is nothing if not a self-proclaimed expert on the presidency. Trump was a unique candidate, the likes we have never seen before. This makes him both a hero (to some) and a threat to others. The media wants Presidents to change the drapes, not tear down the building.
  2. Hindsight Bias: Trump’s media detractors didn’t like him during the campaign, so they sure weren’t going to like him in the Oval Office. In their book, he was a stain on history, and their coverage flowed from there.
  3. Celebrity Bias: Those cognitive biases ran their course, and as always, started to bore eventually. Everyone knows Trump speaks foolishly sometimes, and acts rationally at others, to the amazement of his detractors. But what was missing was something Warren Buffett and Oprah Winfrey have learned: being a celebrity places you beyond the talons of those who would destroy you. Celebrityhood is reputation insurance for the rich and famous. Davos may have started a new cycle of Trump the celebrity. If so, what rich irony?
  4. In-Group Bias: It is the bias that makes us think our knowledge of others surpasses their knowledge of us. This explains why we find so much Confirmation Bias in the media’s early reaction to Trump. After a successful Davos performance, the chorus may quiet down or go home to memorize the new sheet music.
  5. Repetition Bias: The more you hear it, the more you believe it. If Trump plays his cards right, who knows? As a former casino owner, he knows when to bluff and when to call. He could start a new chapter that offends fewer and gives hope to many.

On the other hand, his casinos went bankrupt. So what will be will be.


MORE LIKE THIS

  • Get the CEO Briefing

    Sign up today to get weekly access to the latest issues affecting CEOs in every industry
  • upcoming events

    Roundtable

    Strategic Planning Workshop

    1:00 - 5:00 pm

    Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process

    Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:

    1. Lack of systematic approach (70%)
    2. Laundry lists without prioritization (68%)
    3. Decisions based on personalities rather than facts and information (65%)

     

    Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns.  They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning.  Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process.  This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented.  If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form.  The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.

    To sign up, select this option in your registration form. Additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.

    New York, NY: ​​​Chief Executive's Corporate Citizenship Awards 2017

    Women in Leadership Seminar and Peer Discussion

    2:00 - 5:00 pm

    Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations. 

    Limited space available.

    To sign up, select this option in your registration form. Additional fee of $495 will be added to your total.

    Golf Outing

    10:30 - 5:00 pm
    General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
    Sponsored by UBS

    General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.

    The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.

    To sign up, select this option in your registration form. Additional fee of $295 will be added to your total.