Confidence among Canada’s CEO community fell sharply in March, amid tariff uncertainty with the Trump administration in the U.S., according to a new poll by Chief Executive conducted in partnership with MacKay CEO Forums.
Our forward-looking indicator, which tracks CEOs’ outlook for business 12 months out, declined to 4.8 on a 10-point scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. That is 20 percent lower than in January (5.9).
And only 35 percent of the 299 CEOs surveyed March 5-10, in the midst of the on-again, off-again tariffs on Canadian imports to the U.S. and Ottawa’s retaliatory moves, expect business conditions to improve over the next 12 months. That proportion is down from 54 percent in January.
It’s not all projections, either. Canada’s CEOs say current business conditions have become “weak,” rating them 4.8 out of 10, a downgrade from our latest poll in January, when they had assigned conditions a rating of 5.4 (or “good,” according to the scale points).
While the main reason for this declining confidence centres around trade issues with the U.S., CEOs polled say it’s the volatility of the situation that is most concerning and causing confusion over what the best course of action should be.
As a result, half said they are sticking to their growth plans, with slight shifts in strategy and projected outcomes, while others say they’ve pivoted to wait and see and, even, survival mode. “Putting on the armour just in case,” said one CEO.
Some of the most common strategies used or considered to mitigate the impact of these tariffs, according to the survey, include shifting the supply chain (41 percent) and increasing prices (37 percent).
“Focus will be on diversification in the short term towards a long-term plan for growth, but no longer expectations of growth in the short term,” said the CEO of an upper middle market consumer manufacturing organization in Ontario.
“We are still anticipating growth but are starting to manage expectations down on how much,” said Laura Syron, president and CEO at Diabetes Canada.
“We intend to focus our sales efforts in Canada, as we develop market share we will look to Europe,” said Angella Hughes, CEO of consumer manufacturing company Glomalin in New Brunswick.
Meanwhile, 77 percent say the trade situation between the two countries has made them less optimistic about the business outlook for their organization—and 61 percent said they are also now less optimistic about Canadian companies’ ability to conduct business outside Canada.
Here’s some of what CEOs said about other issues, from immigration to national security to the financial future of the country:
When asked what that means for their respective companies over the next 12 months, most CEOs responded with revised forecasts:
Three-quarters say both the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and Canada’s response will have negative effects on their industry as a whole, though there is debate over how long these effects will last.
The situation is, of course, evolving and while 74 percent say they have not yet experienced increased costs or supply chain disruptions, 47 percent say they expect these effects to materialize soon.
Though by Tuesday March 11 both the U.S. and Canada had (re)paused tariffs on most goods, 83 percent of CEOs said, when we surveyed them March 5-10, that they supported Canada’s response of retaliatory tariffs, with 61 percent saying they “strongly support” it.
“Overall, trade wars are never beneficial to either parties on both sides of the border but sitting and doing nothing isn’t really going to help our case either, so I think the retaliatory sanctions by Canada is a good call,” said the CEO of a mid-sized company out of Ontario.
“It’s not good for our economy but a message needs to be sent,” echoed another CEO in the financial services industry in Saskatchewan.
“100 percent dollar for dollar tariffs all the way,” said another.
Some say the tit-for-tat response is not enough to redress the situation for Canadian businesses. Instead, they say, Canada, must fix its own commercial policies to remove obstacles and impediments to growth.
“We are ill-prepared as a country to band together and address these issues as a whole,” said Steven Hayward, president and CEO of Project X, a Toronto-based boutique advisory and business consulting firm.
“Canada is in this situation because for too long we have relied on the U.S. for everything. We have not divested our economy. We do not trade internally. We are simply in a very weak position, mostly due to our own doing. For us to now put tariffs on American goods would be catastrophic,” said Stuart Dewar, president and CEO at Splashdown Integrated Exteriors, adding Canada has too many regulations, “in all business sectors,” stifling business growth.
“Current government does nothing to assist manufacturers. It seems hell bent on removing manufacturing from Canada. This new tariff situation will make it worse, but it was already poor,” said Dan Evans, president of consumer manufacturer TUFX-Fort.
“The sooner we cut our umbilical cord from the U.S., the better off we will be. We need to first of all support our own Canadian industries as much as possible. Break down inter-province trade barriers and work together,” said Deanna Geisheimer at BC-based Art Works.
But CEOs’ confidence in the Canadian government’s ability to navigate the current geopolitical and economic environment is low, at 4.2 out of 10, where 1 is “no confidence” and 10 is “absolute confidence.”
“Canada is in desperate need of a new federal government. Once an election is held, then Canada needs to come to the bargaining table with the Trump administration,” said Arthur Salzer, CEO of Northland Wealth, echoing many others who blamed federal and provincial leadership for Canada’s vulnerability.
When asked which party they believe would have greater ability to navigate this situation, the majority (55 percent) said the Conservative Party and 36 percent chose the Liberal Party.
Still, some remain optimistic that this situation is only temporary.
“I think that due to the tariffs and the threat of tariffs, business conditions now and in the next few months will be dire, but if the government steps up with a solid stimulus package or supports, we can rally to better conditions,” said the CEO of a nonprofit organization.
“I can only hope we have a change in federal government, and they focus on business growth, which will get the economy going. It sounds like Poilievre wants to encourage business growth,” said Darrell Scrivens, president and CEO of Central Auto Parts Distributors in Alberta.
Starfish Medical CEO Scott Phillips has hope this will resolve soon: “I believe the tariffs situation will be clearer [a year from now]. Government services in the U.S. will have stabilized. The investment environment in our industry will be somewhat better.”
“[The] uncertainty should reduce over time—Canadian federal election, U.S. mid-terms will be a factor,” said Derek Dobson, CEO of CAAT Pension Plan.
“Canada can endure this trade war better than we think,” said Terry Gillis, CEO of talent management consultancy Ahria Consulting.
Please note: We will be diving into the data by industry—if you would like an in-depth look, please request a report at research@chiefexecutivegroup.com.
Chief Executive Group polls hundreds of C-Suite and board members throughout the year to build our CxO Confidence Index series. The Index provides insightful data into business trends and what will likely shape strategies for the year ahead. In August 2024, we expanded the series to Canada. Our March 2025 edition of the Canada CEO survey was the fourth one in the series. It received 299 responses.
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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