CEOs’ list of concerns has hardly changed in months: Supply chain disruptions, labor constraints and inflation pressures, coupled with expected tax increases, increased government spending and renewed mandates have convinced many CEOs that the 2022 landscape isn’t likely to be business friendly.

“Instead of focusing on the real issues of consumer confidence, rising prices, low morale, incented joblessness and disenfranchised businesses, congress and the President seem more keen on figuring out massive tax bills and propagated myths around the effectiveness of vaccines,” says JD Harris, CEO of Minneapolis, Minnesota-based tech and cyber consultancy Ascent Solutions LLC, echoing several of his peers’ sentiment. “People are getting seriously tired of it, and our politicians are completely out of touch with reality.” His forecast for business by November 2022 is “poor”—or 2/10 on the Index scale—down from a reading of 7 today.

Tim Zimmerman, CEO at Mitchell Metal Products, a family-owned manufacturer of HVAC sheet metal products based in Merrill, Wisconsin, rates current conditions near perfect, at 9 out of 10, but expects them to deteriorate to a 7 by this time next year. “Supply chain difficulties are weighing on business sentiment. Labor shortages are actually difficult. The combination of the two will throttle back the ability of economic growth to remain sustained,” he says.

“The current administration’s policies seem to point to a rather anti-business future,” says American Plastic Toys President John Gessert. “This will likely not curb inflation in the next 12 to 18 months.”

“The bubble must burst at some point,” says Fred Pieplow, president of Michigan consulting firm Manna Management LLC. “The goods backed up at the ports will enter the market at unscheduled times and cause disruption in normal supply and demand for imported goods.”

“There are a numerous external factors (i.e., supply chain, inflation, labor, legislative, tax policy, environmental, etc.) which are adversely impacting all businesses to varying degrees depending upon its industry. Most, if not all of these factors, are beyond a business’ ability to control, therefore creating great uncertainty and complexity,” says Bill Baldwin, CEO of NJ-based management consulting firm Kepner-Tregoe.

Thomas Mercaldo, president, Milford, Connecticut-based specialty staffing firm Aquinas Consulting, cites competition for workers, pricing issues due to inflation, expected rising taxes and energy costs, along with supply chain issues disrupting manufacturing as the reasons for his forecast for a weak business environment in the coming year.

He’s not alone. An increasing number of CEOs forecast business conditions to weaken over the next 12 months, up 5 points since October, to 40 percent (vs. 33 percent who expect them to improve, and 27 percent who say they will remain flat).

James Loree, president and CEO of Stanley Black & Decker, is among those forecasting the status quo. “Strong demand is capped by supply chain deficiencies and will most likely [be] offset by a growing inflation tsunami,” he says, giving current and future business conditions a rating of 6 out of 10—or “good” according to the scale points.

“There will be improvement in the supply chain, lower pressure on commodities and unwavering consumer demand,” says Fabien Kelbert, president of global manufacturer Rivulis Irrigation, who is among those forecasting improvements in 2022.

Steve Schiller, president of structural engineering firm John A. Martin & Assoc., agrees: “I think we will have cycled through the pandemic and will have more certainty in the congress.”