The Secret To Innovation Is ‘Vertical Innovation’
June 17, 2025
After a season of deep tariff and trade uncertainty, America’s CEOs are betting the volatility will be short-lived and that by fall businesses—and the U.S. economy—will have a clearer path ahead.
Those are the key takeaways from Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index survey of 277 U.S. CEOs fielded June 3 and 4.
CEOs’ assessment of current business conditions improved for a third consecutive month in June, to 5.3 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent, up 8 percent from the previous month (5.0) and 15 percent off where we started the year (6.3 in January). It has now recovered 17 percent of the steep and sudden 28 percent one-month decline recorded in April.
Meanwhile, 51 percent of those polled in June say they expect conditions to continue to improve as trade negotiations settle. They project business conditions will rise to 5.8/10 over the coming months—a 9 percent increase from current levels and up 7 percent from what they forecasted in May (5.4).
CEOs cited healthy pipelines and robust economic indicators for their growing optimism—69 percent told us consumer demand is the same or higher than it was last year. Still, much of the optimism is based on the hopeful idea that the current trade-related uncertainty stalling most strategic investments will be short-lived.
“[There is] high uncertainty in many end markets but overall, I feel good about the long-term direction and correction needed to trade and economic policies being put in place,” said Chris Cummins, CEO of Micronics.
“Business conditions are likely to improve as trade war calms down and interest rates are reduced,” added Michael Araten, CEO of Rodon Group
John W. Gessert, CEO of American Plastic Toys, agrees: “I believe that the current tariff uncertainty that is adversely affecting many business sectors, especially for a US toy manufacturer like American Plastic Toys, will be settled in six to 12 months.”
Improving recession forecasts also reflect this growing buoyancy among CEOs. Only 28 percent of those polled now expect a recession in the near term, down from 46 percent in May and from 62 percent in April. No CEO participating in the June poll forecasted a severe recession in the coming six months.
A growing proportion of CEOs are now forecasting growth by the end of the year: 36 percent say it will be “mild growth” and 6 percent expect “strong growth”. Those numbers are up from 25 percent and 2 percent in May, and from 19 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in April.
Asked how these factors will impact their respective companies, CEOs shared improving forecasts:
Despite improving forecasts, CEOs say rising operating costs overall are weighing on their ability to further expand margins. More than two-thirds (69 percent) expect costs to continue to rise in the year ahead.
As Bill Blanton, president and CEO of engineered solutions manufacturer Middleville Tool and Die, put it: “I’m optimistic about 2027 and future years, but I think there is still a lot of heartburn to be had over the next 12-15 months to get there.”
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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1:00 - 5:00 pm
Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process
Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:
Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns. They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning. Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process. This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented. If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form. The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.
2:00 - 5:00 pm
Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations.
Limited space available.
10:30 - 5:00 pm
General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
Sponsored by UBS
General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.
The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.
