CEOs Split On Inflation, Interest Rates And Trump-Musk In 2025 Forecast
Making predictions about the future of the world is no easy task—especially in times of rapid change, global upheaval, and technological innovation. Yet, we can’t resist the temptation to try! After all, understanding what America’s CEOs anticipate is often more useful for strategic planning than what whatever actually ends up happening. Plus, it’s a lot more fun.
With that in mind, we once again tapped into the collective wisdom of the U.S. CEO community for their thoughts about the year ahead. As 2024 came to a close, we reviewed how CEOs’ predictions for the year measured up (see the results here) and asked for their perspectives on what 2025 might bring. Here’s what they shared:
With the rallies in the market in December, the answer choices were slightly adjusted to accommodate a new high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 45,000—which 69 percent of CEOs expect will be surpassed by December 2025, up from its current level of around 43,000. Only 31 percent of CEOs expect the Dow to close under 45,000 at the end of the new year. These predictions are about the same level of optimism as last year, when 72 percent of CEOs predicted the Dow would end 2024 above 35,000, while the average was hovering somewhere around 37,000.
Perhaps the S&P 500 predictions will shed new thoughts about the economy. As it turns out, CEOs are even more optimistic about the S&P, with 88 percent expecting a close above its current level of around 6,000. Still, it’s not unanimous, with 12 percent of CEOs expecting a drop.
“We will be in bubble territory soon if not already,” says Stephan Moyon, of VELUX North America, a mid-large sized window manufacturer.
After many years of trying to ignore Bitcoin, it seems that the big banks and government have noticed, and they want in. In December 2024 Bitcoin finally surpassed the magic $100,000 level just as CEOs were asked to predict where it will go from here. More than a third of CEOs expect it to hover around current levels and end 2025 between $90,000 and $110,000, 37 percent predict the value will move above current levels, and 30 percent expect a drop.
“Seems like it’s now acting as an inflation hedge, like gold,” says Ramy Mahmoud, CEO of Optinose, a specialty pharmaceutical company.
If you thought concern about inflation should remain an artifact of 2023—think again! Our polling shows 27 percent of CEOs now expect inflation to swell above 3 percent by year-end 2025, up from its current level of 2.7 percent. “Tariffs will play a role in this,” says Crystal Morris, CEO of Gator Cases, echoing the comments of many CEOs.
What’s reassuring is that the remaining 73 percent of those surveyed say they expect it to stay about where it is or fall in the year ahead.
After three rate cuts in 2024 and a seemingly successful bid to squash inflation, we asked CEOs what they foresee from the Fed in 2025. CEOs answered with 43 percent forecasting interest rates between 4 and 5 percent (the current levels are hovering between 4.25 and 4.5 percent). Thirty-five percent expect the rate to drop to between 3 and 4 percent, while 16 percent forecast rate hikes to above 5 percent.
“It’s dependent on inflation,” says Terrence Cummings, CEO of PWR Storage Solutions.
In the third year of asking this question the war in Ukraine sadly continues. This year, 65 percent of CEOs predict a brokered halt to the war by year-end vs. only 17 percent who forecasted the same in 2023. A quarter of CEOs forecast a continued slog. Hopefully this will be the last time we ask this question.
“Unfortunately, as a born Ukrainian, I can tell that we will have a brokered halt,” says Vladyslav Podoliako, founder & CEO at Belkins, a lead generation agency. “While in my heart, I am praying for victory for Ukraine, the harsh reality wants to say something different. There is a high chance of ending this war for the first H1 and a slight change in continuation for the H2.”
An unlikely duo emerged in the fall of 2024 as Donald Trump secured the presidential election with Elon Musk by his side. Why not ask a group of CEOs from across the country whether a high-powered CEO will still be tethered to the nation’s president, known for his high administration turnover, after a year?
Well, the CEOs are split almost exactly down the middle. A slight majority (54 percent) predict the dynamics of this duo will remain strong by December 2025, while 46 percent expect Musk to get the boot or leave of his own volition by then.
“Two big personalities will clash,” predicts Steve C. Jones, CEO and president of Murphy Bank. “Elon needs to stay in his lane.”
The CEO Confidence Index is America’s largest monthly survey of chief executives. Each month, Chief Executive surveys CEOs across America, at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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