THE CEO CONFIDENCE INDEX, Chief Executive’s monthly gauge of CEOs’ expectations for business conditions over the next 12 months, dropped 4.2 percent from November to December, landing at 6.47 out of a possible 10. Though optimism took a tumble since November, this is still the second-highest rating CEOs have given since July 2007. The third and fourth quarters of 2014 have proven the most encouraging in the past decade, with the Index measuring 6.44 in September, 6.36 in October and 6.75 in November—all multiyear highs.
Perception of current conditions stayed virtually unchanged in December with a rating of 6.20 out of 10 compared to 6.19 the previous month. CEOs’ ratings of current conditions stayed above six for the fourth consecutive month—the first such streak since September 2008.
Despite the record-high ratings from CEOs, many respondents made cautious and critical comments. Many concerned the ongoing impact of healthcare spending, increased regulatory burden and a lack of trust in the leadership in Washington D.C. As the CEO of a large manufacturing company put it, “The White House and the bureaucrats are killing the economy and preventing the resurgence of the American spirit.”
The CEO of a mid-market manufacturing company provided commentary more in-line with the ratings received in the survey: “2014 was a record year and we anticipate 2015 to be even better. Sustainability projects are helping make a big difference in our profitability.”
When asked the forecast of their own businesses over the next year, 79 percent of CEOs said they anticipate revenue growth—nearly half of which are expecting growth more than 10 percent. Over half of CEOs surveyed plan to increase their firms’ headcount, as well as capital expenditures, in the next 12 months. Plus, fully two-thirds of CEOs anticipate growth in profitability next year. It is clear that despite the vocal segment who are concerned with the economic outlook,
regulatory policies and Washington gridlock, the vast majority of business leaders anticipate a boom year in 2015.
As has been the case for the past few years, CEOs of the smallest companies (less than $10 million in revenue) are the least optimistic cohort. Their average rating for expectations for business conditions over the next 12 months was 6.39, bringing down the overall average. CEOs of companies with $10 to $100 million in revenue provided an average rating of 6.51, and the biggest companies’ CEOs rated expectations at 6.49. It seems much of the recent gains have benefited the largest businesses. Optimism for the next year seems to be following this trend.
Based on our insight provided by CEOs, 2015 is shaping up to be the most productive and profitable year for American businesses since the financial crisis. Though concerns with government policies and uncertainty stemming from gridlock and the Affordable Care Act weighed heavily on CEOs minds for the past few years, optimism for the economy now seems to be in full bloom. The next 12 months could very well be the harbinger of a decade of economic boom.
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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1:00 - 5:00 pm
Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process
Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:
Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns. They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning. Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process. This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented. If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form. The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.
2:00 - 5:00 pm
Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations.
Limited space available.
10:30 - 5:00 pm
General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
Sponsored by UBS
General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.
The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.
