The Five X-Factors That Distinguish Real Leaders
June 20, 2025
For business leaders holding their breath about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s massive tariff rollout, hopes of potential dealmaking sparked a small rebound in Chief Executive’s May CEO Confidence survey.
The 300 CEOs we polled across various sectors May 6 and 7 now rate current business in the U.S. at 5 out of 10, up 9 percent from their April rating of 4.6 / 10. And CEOs’ forecasts for what those conditions will be 12 months from now also improved to 5.4 / 10, up 8 percent from April numbers (5.0 / 10).
Both indicators are still well off where they were in January, by 21 and 22 percent respectively, and while historical data shows CEOs tend to show greater optimism at the start of a new year, a comparison of the first five months of each year on record finds 2025 has the lowest level of CEO confidence since 2010.
Driving the May uptick is the belief that the current trade negotiations will have settled by this time next year and that the U.S. economy is healthy enough to sustain some of the headwinds created in the process.
“We have way too many great things in the pipeline for us not to succeed,” explained one CEO who expects business conditions in the U.S. to be “Excellent,” at 10 out of 10, by this time next year, citing improvements in the regulatory environment, the large investments being made in the U.S. and state of the labor market in the private sector. “I have great faith that the economy is growing and humming. The future looks incredibly bright.”
“I believe the tariff issues will be past us, energy prices and regulatory pressures will continue to decline, and we will be moving forward in an upbeat world,” said Brian Lish, President of AG RX, echoing 50 percent of those polled who believe business conditions will be better by this time next year (though the extent of that improvement varies greatly).
For others, optimism stems from the opportunities provided by the current environment. “Chaos and uncertainty create massive opportunity for people and companies with a microeconomic focus,” said John Ratliff, CEO of Full Circle.
Recession fears also decreased in May: 46 percent of CEOs we polled expect a recession over the coming six months, down from 62 percent in April. Of those polled 27 percent said they now expect to see the economy grow in the second half of 2025, up from 23 percent in April.
Asked how these factors would likely impact their respective companies, CEOs shared improving forecasts in May:
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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1:00 - 5:00 pm
Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process
Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:
Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns. They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning. Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process. This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented. If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form. The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.
2:00 - 5:00 pm
Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations.
Limited space available.
10:30 - 5:00 pm
General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
Sponsored by UBS
General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.
The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.