The Secret To Innovation Is ‘Vertical Innovation’
June 17, 2025
Chief Executive’s April survey of U.S. CEO confidence finds their ratings of current business conditions at the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic shuttered business in the spring of 2020. Their outlook for the year to come remains stalled at a multi-year low as well.
The index, based on U.S. CEOs’ rating of current business conditions on a 1-10 scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent, dipped to 4.6 from 5.0 in March. It is down 28 percent since the start of 2025. Their outlook for the next 12 months was 5/10—the same as March and down 29 percent year to date. It is now at its lowest level since November 2012.
The survey of 329 U.S. CEOs and business owners was conducted April 8-10, as they digested the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff programs, his decision to pause some tariffs, push tariffs on China above 100 percent and the subsequent wild swings in global financial markets.
Overwhelmingly, CEOs in our April survey said the president’s global tariff regime was responsible for their failing optimism. Two-thirds (67 percent) said they do not approve of the tariffs, and 76 percent said they would negatively or very negatively impact their businesses this year.
“Tariffs and the uncertainty of next steps that will be taken by President Trump will lead to very difficult economic times over the next year or two,” said Mitchell Metal Products President and CEO Tim Zimmerman.
“This uncertainty needs to stop,” said Donald H Lloyd II, president and CEO of St. Claire HealthCare in Kentucky. “I support tariffs but believe they need to be applied strategically, not globally.”
A growing proportion of CEOs now forecast a slowdown or recession within the next six months: 62 percent, vs. 48 percent in March, and 14 percent now predict a severe recession, up from only 3 percent last month. The largest monthly declines in the survey were found in CEOs’ outlook for revenues, profits, capex and hiring, all of which dropped sharply since March. Hiring fared the worst, with potentially ominous implications for the consumer economy. Of those polled in April, 39 percent said they would be decreasing headcount in 2025 vs. 11 percent in March (see below).
As for inflation, 81 percent now expect the cost of goods, services and labor will increase this year compared to last year, with half expecting that increase to be in the double digits.
“Although I am in support of moving more manufacturing back to the U.S., this is not how to do it,” said Peter Ensch CEO of Sani-Matic. “Initiating a trade war with our closest allies and business partners is simply bad business. The President is absolutely clueless about the amount of time it will take to accomplish this. He also appears to not understand that changing his mind every other day also increases uncertainty that does not support stability for making long-term capital investments in facilities, tooling and training a new workforce.”
“Uncertainty is playing havoc with making decisions for us and our customers. Never in my business experience have I seen such irresponsible government decisions coming from the White House with no pushback from elected representatives,” said Denise Mcintosh, CEO of Custom Powder Systems.
“I hope I’m wrong, but I expect the ‘pain’ to be here for a while. I do not trust the administration to self-correct,” said Maura Dunn, president and CEO of TrailBlazer Consulting.
CEOs who responded to the survey after the president announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs shared outlooks similar to that of their peers who had weighed in prior to the news, citing an overall “lack of direction” in the White House and the impact of these actions on diplomacy and trade relations as the main reasons why, despite the “pause,” their confidence remained low.
“No rules to play by so how could you possibly forecast?” said one of those CEOs who rates current conditions a 2 and expects them to improve to only 3 over the coming 12 months.
“Current administration doesn’t have a clue about diplomacy,” added another CEO who shared his forecast (2/10) well after the pause announcement. “The tariff effort has been a train wreck.”
Some CEOs remain hopeful the Trump administration’s tariffs strategy will be resolved within a year and the most acute economic pain will be short-lived. The proportion of CEOs who expect business conditions to have improved from what they are today 12 months from now rose to 51 percent in April, from 39 percent in March—though the range of that improvement is projected to be less than 10 percent, to a muted 5 out of 10.
Among those who are optimistic, most cite a resolution of the current trade negotiations and more clarity and certainty as to what comes next.
“Short term pain will result in long term gains,” said Tom McGuire, CEO of Air Hydro Power. “We have to be put on a level playing field in world economy.”
“Chaos in the moment with trade wars but it will settle out for the better of our country and economy,” said Jeff Chandler, the CEO and president at Hopdoddy in Texas.
“Taking this time to invest in R&D, hiring to be ready for significant growth,” said Dayton-Phoenix Group CEO Christy Fox, who forecasts business conditions to reach a level of 8 by this time next year.
Projections one year out varied significantly depending on sector. For instance, energy company CEOs expect business conditions in the U.S. to rise to 7/10 by this time next year—40 percent better than the average across-sectors.
At the other end of the scale, government and nonprofit CEOs anticipate business conditions will fall to 3.2/10—36 percent lower than the cross-sector average.
Manufacturing CEOs, who lately find their sector in the spotlight, have a mixed view of what comes next depending on whether they sell to consumers or other businesses. While both expect improvements over the next 12 months, the range of that movement varies considerably: 10 percent improvement in the consumer manufacturing sector, vs. 6 percent for industrial manufacturing companies.
The data also shows variances in optimism among those CEOs who say their companies are not impacted by the announced tariffs. Those CEOs rate the current business landscape 6.3/10—38 percent higher than the overall rating by all respondents—and expect business conditions 12 months out to rise to 7.2/10—44 percent higher than the average forecast across all those participating in the April poll.
Exposure to international markets vs. domestic-only companies did not move the data by a large margin. CEOs at the helm of companies with U.S.-only operations and no exposure to international markets rate current conditions 4.8/10 (vs. 4.6 for the overall average) and 5.2/10 for what they expect will be in place by this time next year (vs. 5.0).
When asked to share what this all means for their respective companies, forecasts included:
Revenue:
Profits:
Capital expenditures:
Hiring:
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
Chief Executive Group exists to improve the performance of U.S. CEOs, senior executives and public-company directors, helping you grow your companies, build your communities and strengthen society. Learn more at chiefexecutivegroup.com.
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1:00 - 5:00 pm
Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process
Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:
Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns. They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning. Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process. This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented. If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form. The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.
2:00 - 5:00 pm
Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations.
Limited space available.
10:30 - 5:00 pm
General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
Sponsored by UBS
General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.
The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.
