Last week we saw an unprecedented panic selling of stocks, with the market down 12%, driven by fear of the economic impact of COVID-19. It was a scary time, and I worry there is more to come.
For CEOs, this is the time to lead from the front. Urgency, decisiveness and action becomes the need of the hour—yet the temptation to get “bunkered-in” remains very high. It’s crucial to maintain a calm tone and demeanor while the external storm rages. Broad-based decisions such as “stay at home” should be taken only as needed—and not as a knee jerk reaction.
It may help to put things in perspective, based on the two-month cycle observed in China. So let’s look at the facts.
The initial report from Hubei province went to the World Health Organization on December 30, 2019. The quarantine in Hubei went into effect on January 23, 2020. By January 28, the new cases per day had moved up to 3,200, peaking on February 5, at 5,200. Since then that number has come down steadily to a present level of 200.
The stay-at-home order was lifted on February 25, and people are back at work. The China economy is probably going to see its customary 6% per year growth rate reduced by half in 2020—and then resume the 6% going forward. More importantly, 81% of the COVID-19 cases were mild, and the fatality rate was around 2%, mostly people over 60 with pre-existing medical conditions.
To put that in greater perspective: The total fatality rate from COVID-19 is just 1-2% of the all-cause mortality in Hubei province.
The U.S. has more advanced communications and disease management systems, so I expect the fatality rate here should be well below 1%. Overall this should be a manageable problem. Many preparedness measures are already in place and there is still time for surge capacity planning, where needed.
I like to keep the massive market selloff of October 2008 in mind at times like these. For those that held tight or even bought into the drop, it was one of the greatest opportunities in modern financial history. The biggest opportunities always occur when there is a stampede among others—especially for the CEO who stays in control and acts with urgency, decisiveness and action.
By Monday evening, the Dow was up 1,293 points, or 5.09%.
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1:00 - 5:00 pm
Over 70% of Executives Surveyed Agree: Many Strategic Planning Efforts Lack Systematic Approach Tips for Enhancing Your Strategic Planning Process
Executives expressed frustration with their current strategic planning process. Issues include:
Steve Rutan and Denise Harrison have put together an afternoon workshop that will provide the tools you need to address these concerns. They have worked with hundreds of executives to develop a systematic approach that will enable your team to make better decisions during strategic planning. Steve and Denise will walk you through exercises for prioritizing your lists and steps that will reset and reinvigorate your process. This will be a hands-on workshop that will enable you to think about your business as you use the tools that are being presented. If you are ready for a Strategic Planning tune-up, select this workshop in your registration form. The additional fee of $695 will be added to your total.
2:00 - 5:00 pm
Female leaders face the same issues all leaders do, but they often face additional challenges too. In this peer session, we will facilitate a discussion of best practices and how to overcome common barriers to help women leaders be more effective within and outside their organizations.
Limited space available.
10:30 - 5:00 pm
General’s Retreat at Hermitage Golf Course
Sponsored by UBS
General’s Retreat, built in 1986 with architect Gary Roger Baird, has been voted the “Best Golf Course in Nashville” and is a “must play” when visiting the Nashville, Tennessee area. With the beautiful setting along the Cumberland River, golfers of all capabilities will thoroughly enjoy the golf, scenery and hospitality.
The golf outing fee includes transportation to and from the hotel, greens/cart fees, use of practice facilities, and boxed lunch. The bus will leave the hotel at 10:30 am for a noon shotgun start and return to the hotel after the cocktail reception following the completion of the round.
