Chief Executive Research
Last year—2023—didn’t end on the most optimistic note. The U.S. was preparing to enter an election year (the first one since the Covid pandemic), and the major theme here and abroad was, you guessed it, uncertainty. Without clarity on how 2024 would turn out, many businesses were hesitant to make big decisions.
Well, the year turned out better than expected, but looking back at CEOs’ predictions for 2024, which we asked them to share with us in December last year, reminds us we’ve come a long way. So now, as has become a tradition, let’s look back and see how well—or not—CEOs did at predicting the future. (P.S., we’re asking you to look in your own crystal ball and share your 2025 forecasts here.) Let’s dive in:
When asked in December 2023 to forecast where the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be in December 2024, 57 percent of 167 CEOs polled said between 35,000 and 40,000, which would be unchanged from the value in December 2023. About a quarter (23 percent) said it would fall between 30,000 and 35,000. Only 15 percent of you forecasted this one correctly, with the Dow now around 45,000. We missed the mark too, given our answer choices. But there are no losers here really.
After 95 percent of CEOs predicted, in December 2022, that there would be a recession in the U.S. in 2023 (and there wasn’t one), we asked again, in December 2023, whether CEOs expected a recession in 2024. Fully two-thirds said yes, forecasting a recession in 2024—unsurprising given some the gloomy outlook and forecasts coming from big banks, economists and politicians. But they missed the mark, too. Some sectors have suffered more than others, but overall, the U.S. economy retained consistent growth, consumer spending is still on an incline and unemployment remains low.
CEOs were spot-on with their predictions about inflation: 61 percent predicted it would subside gradually in 2024. Considering inflation peaked in March, at 3.5 percent, and has now fallen under 3 percent, it’s safe to say CEOs predicted this one correctly. Is inflation back to pre-pandemic levels? Not yet, but it’s not too far off.
About half of you expected that by December 2024 the fed funds rate would be between 4 and 5 percent, down from the 5.25 to 5.5 percent levels one year prior. Well, in 2024, the Fed finally cut rates, and did it twice, so the current rate is now at a level of 4.5 to 4.75 percent, meaning that your guesses were on the money. Thirty percent said that rates wouldn’t get a cut and would therefore remain between 5 and 6 percent, but still, most of you got it right.
In any democracy you’d expect Xi Jinping would have a tough time staying in power, but this is China—so continued uncertainty and a struggling economy, not to mention human rights issues, don’t mean a change in leadership anytime soon. Almost all of the CEOs polled in December 2023 said Xi would be President in December 2024. It’s unlikely that this will change anytime soon.
In December 2023, we also asked CEOs to share their forecast for the status of the Russia/Ukraine war by December 2024. Seven CEOs out of 10 forecasted a continued slog, meaning that fighting would continue with Russia still holding on to Ukrainian territory. Only 17 percent predicted a brokered halt, such as a cease-fire or negotiated peace agreement, compared to 41 percent the year prior. Unfortunately, and this time by a large margin, CEOs were right again, as the war continues to grind into 2025.
After the missed prediction for the presidential race in 2022, when 81 percent of CEOs predicted that Ron DeSantis would emerge as the presidential front-runner (not a single person thought it would be Donald Trump), CEOs had a more accurate guess this time around. When asked in December 2023 who would win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, 38 percent of CEOs correctly predicted Donald Trump. While that’s not an overwhelming majority by any means, it was still the most popular answer by almost 10 points. So, you get this one.
We’re currently polling for the year ahead, and there’s still time to share your predictions on the economy, bitcoin and even the Trump cabinet. Care to try again? Share your forecast for 2025 here >
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