CEO Confidence Sinks To 14-Month Low But Midterm Results Cushion The Fall 

Election night may have given CEOs something to cheer about. As confidence plunged to a 14-month low, CEOs who responded to our November CEO Confidence Index poll after midterm elections results began coming in helped keep the Index from falling further. 

That may be a surprising twist for a business community that has historically leaned toward conservative economic policies. But digging into CEOs’ comments, the shift could have less to do with political allegiance than with the prospect of moving past uncertainty and getting back to business. 

“I think midterms are weighing on business leaders and their decisions. Once that’s settled, things should start moving again,” said one CEO responding to the survey. 

“President’s chaotic initiatives will be balanced by a more functional congress,” said another. Others put it more simply: “Election [is] over so hopefully some stability.” 

The survey, fielded November 3–5 among 435 U.S. CEOs, nevertheless reveals a sharp decline in confidence. CEOs rated current business conditions 5.3 out of 10, down 8 percent from October, while their 12-month forecast fell 7 percent to 5.4. 

But the timing of responses reveals a notable difference. 

Among CEOs who completed the survey before results began coming in on the evening of November 3, assessments of current conditions averaged 5.2, and forecasts for the year ahead stood at 5.3. 

Among those responding after that, both measures were higher, at 5.5 and 5.6, respectively. 

In their explanation of their ratings, some CEOs said they view a change in Congress as prospect of greater stability, while others simply welcomed an end to the uncertainty surrounding the elections. 

“The midterm election is over and the balance of power is in place. At least we know what we should probably do,” said the CEO of a family-owned manufacturer. 

Another CEO was more tentative: “The elections will be behind us and will know where the country is headed. May be in the wrong direction, but at least we will know.” 

For others, the optimism extends beyond Washington, with hopes that the election results will ease trade tensions, improve international relations and accelerate an end to the war in Iran. 

“The elections will surely change the direction of the country, and we should be out of war by then,” said one CEO looking ahead 12 months. 

Another cited “improved global stability based on recent mid-term election results.”  

The roughly three-tenths-of-a-point difference in both measures is notable, particularly inside a matter of hours. Historically, the Index moves just two-tenths of a point on average from one month to the next. 

Still, the optimism was far from universal. CEOs responding after the results were also more likely to forecast deterioration: 30 percent, compared with 25 percent of those responding earlier. 

“Election results create uncertainty and gridlock,” said one CEO, who expects business conditions to deteriorate over the next 12 months. 

“Business will slow down due to the outcome [of] the November 3 elections due to the democrats going on their witch hunts against republicans throughout the U.S.,” said another, who forecasts conditions falling from 3 to 1 out of 10. 

Confidence Hits a 14-Month Low 

The last time CEOs rated current conditions this poorly was September 2025, when the Index stood at 5.1 amid tariff uncertainty, shifting government policies and concerns about economic growth. 

More than a year later, many of those challenges remain. In November 2025, CEOs forecasted conditions would reach 6.2 by now. At 5.3, the Index is roughly 15 percent below that expectation. 

And CEOs don’t anticipate much improvement. Their 12-month forecast of 5.4 is just 2 percent above their current assessment—a pattern that has persisted for much of 2026, apart from a three-month stretch of stronger optimism during the second quarter. 

More CEOs are now expecting no change at all: 39 percent forecast business conditions will remain essentially unchanged over the next 12 months, up from 30 percent in October. 

Corporate and Economic Growth Forecasts Remain Strong 

Despite their weaker assessments of business conditions, CEOs haven’t abandoned their expectations for growth. 

Six out of 10 now anticipate U.S. economic growth over the next six months, up from 53 percent in October. Much of that shift came from CEOs previously forecasting a flat economy, while the share anticipating a slowdown or recession declined slightly. 

That share was higher among CEOs who responded after the election results came in: 63 percent, compared with 56 percent of those responding earlier. 

The optimism is even more pronounced in CEOs’ forecasts for their own companies: 

• 67 percent expect to finish 2026 with higher revenues than in 2025, down from 73 percent in September. 

• 62 percent expect higher profits, roughly in line with September’s reading. 
  

Looking ahead to 2027, those numbers jump to 80 percent for revenue and 74 percent for profits. 

Those expectations come despite continued cost pressures: Nearly eight in 10 CEOs anticipate higher operating expenses next year, though most foresee increases of less than 10 percent. 

Meanwhile, 54 percent plan to increase capital spending, and 52 percent expect to expand headcount; about a third expect to hold each flat.