Of course, not every CEO shares this sunny outlook—though that minority is getting smaller every month. Among those who are not as optimistic about business conditions over the coming months, many say they are concerned the U.S. hasn’t yet felt the full effect of the tariffs and that there will likely be more backlash as developments take hold.
“Input cost pressures are squeezing our margins severely. We are pushing through price increases to partially account for our increased costs. This has caused some of our products to be sourced offshore by our customers,” said Tim Zimmerman, CEO of Mitchell Metal Products. “It is a difficult market for first and second tier suppliers to domestic, Canadian and Mexican OEMs.”
There are also certain sectors where CEOs are more concerned over the effects of the current federal budget and policies. Healthcare CEOs, in particular, are not as optimistic about the short term.
“Hospitals will be further weakened by Medicaid cuts, coupled with continuance of exorbitant costs of pharmaceuticals, supplies, equipment and high labor costs,” said Peggy L. Abbott, CEO/President of Ouachita County Medical Center. “As inflation continues, people triage the payment for household expenses and hospitals are often at the bottom of their lists.”
TriRx Chair and CEO Tim Tyson shared a similar outlook: “I am very concerned about the current administration’s focus on tariffs and attitude towards Russia and China and the impact on pricing and the global supply chain,” he said, forecasting a slight deterioration in business conditions in the near term but an overall flat economy.
Overall, 51 percent of CEOs now forecast a growing economy for the second half of the year—a sharp turnaround from Q1, when 62 percent expected a recession in the U.S. Today, fewer than a quarter continue to forecast a recession by year end.