Source: Chief Executive Research
After a double-digit surge in optimism in the months following the November presidential election, confidence among America’s business community fell sharply the first week of March, according to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index, fielded March 4 and 5.
CEOs’ rating of current business conditions in the U.S. fell 20 percent from January, from 6.3 to 5 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. This is the lowest level since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic shut down businesses around the world.
CEOs’ forecast for what those conditions will look like 12 months from now fell by an even greater margin—28 percent—from 7/10 in January to 5/10 in March. The last time CEOs’ outlook hit that low was November 2012.
Overall, only 39 percent of the more than 220 CEOs we surveyed now believe the business climate will improve this year, down 13 percentage points (or 25 percent) from 52 percent at the start of the year. Instead, 36 percent say they expect things will get worse, up from 20 percent in January (note: we did not field the survey in February 2025).
Asked about how they anticipate current events will affect the U.S. economy in general, 48 percent say they anticipate a recession or slowdown within the next six months.
The Trump administration’s gyrating tariff threats against Mexico and Canada are the most commonly cited reason for declining optimism. Three-quarters of those surveyed said they believe those tariffs, if imposed, will have negative effects on their respective industries. Rising geopolitical uncertainty, sweeping government layoffs and overall unpredictability for what comes next were all additional factors cited by CEOs we surveyed for their rising pessimism.
“Deeply concerned about the impact of tariffs and other disruptions to traditional global supply chains and trade alliances,” said one CEO who says his organization is now less bullish on growth initiatives and more on preventing the downside impact of the new trade policies.
Others, such as Mitchell Metal Products CEO Tim Zimmerman, say they’re already feeling the effects of the on-again-off-again trade policies. “We are now seeing weakening demand from our customer base and increases in the cost of metals, which is our major raw material. Weakening demand and increasing costs place our manufacturing company in a precarious economic situation. We expect a rough road ahead,” said Zimmerman.
The decline in sentiment appears to be politically broad-based. Many respondents said they were disappointed that the clarity they had expected to have once we got past the election hasn’t materialized.
“Trump is off to a great start, so it’s disappointing to see his ‘dumb’ (as the WSJ said) tariff policy muddying the waters of where the U.S. and world economies are headed,” said Don Ochsenreiter, president and CEO of Dollamur Sport Surfaces.
“We knew there were changes coming, [but] we did not expect them to be rolled out/forced upon us in this fashion, nor did we expect to see Canada and Mexico to be countries that would be affected by these tariffs,” said one CEO who asked to remain anonymous.
“We were looking at a good year after Covid, the current government position has blown up the balloon,” said another CEO, summing up the sentiment shared by many others.
Despite this, more than half of the CEOs polled say they are keeping their growth plans this year. “No choice but to soldier on,” said the CEO of a family-owned retail trade company, despite his grim outlook (3/10) for business over the coming months.
Others are approaching their growth strategy with an eye on Washington. “We are monitoring daily to determine how to pace investment priorities. The degree of drama, uncertainty and unpredictability is stunning from this administration. Not good for business health,” wrote one CEO.
When asked how their level of optimism across several areas had changed since the Trump administration took office, 56 percent of polled CEOs say the actions taken by the new administration have caused them to be less optimistic about the business prospects of their organization—while 62 percent say these actions will hurt U.S. companies’ ability to conduct business outside the U.S., and 51 percent believe this will hurt the financial future of the United States.
Scroll through what CEOs said about the other issues, from immigration and AI competitiveness to healthcare and education:
When asked to share what this all means for their respective companies for the next 12 months:
For many, hitting those targets entails increasing prices. Two-thirds of the CEOs polled (64 percent) say they have or plan to increase prices this year. It may be necessary, as a similar proportion (63 percent) say they have received price increases from their suppliers/vendors.
Please note: We will be diving into the data by sector—if you would like an in-depth look, please request a report at research@chiefexecutivegroup.com.
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. View additional information about the Index and prior months data.
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