Chief Executive Research
The close of 2024 was marked by deep ambiguity—geopolitical tensions, uneven economic signals and anticipation of a new administration coming into the White House. With so much in flux, CEOs entered 2025 preparing for a year defined largely by “wait and see.” Strategic plans were conservative; spending was selective and few felt confident in their ability to forecast what was coming.
But as we near the end of 2025, there is finally some clarity after a turbulent and often surprising year. That gives us a chance to revisit the forecasts CEOs made last December about a handful of critical indicators—from interest rates and inflation to the Dow and the political landscape.
Now, continuing our annual tradition, we’re looking back to see just how accurately CEOs predicted the future. The verdict? Let’s just say that this was a difficult year to predict. Hopefully, the predictions for 2026 will fare better.
When asked in December 2024 to forecast where the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be in December 2025, 52 percent of CEOs we polled said between 45,000 and 50,000, which would be just slightly up from the average closing value of around 44,000 in December of 2024. A whopping 23 percent said it would remain unchanged to between 40,000 and 45,000. Only 17 percent forecasted the Dow to rally above 50,000, so the majority here were on the money with the average sitting around 47,000 this month.
We also asked for forecasts of the S&P 500 last year, and those were less accurate. Only 27 percent of CEOs correctly predicted that the S&P 500 would end the year over 6,500 which was markedly up from the 6,000 it was hovering at during December 2024. Over one-third expected that the S&P 500 would close the year between 6,250 and 6,500, which is relatively close, but still an underestimation.
When it comes to predicting the stock market in 2026, the majority of CEOs do not foresee much movement. Almost at the same margin as 2025, 53 percent of CEOs predict that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be 45,000 to 50,000 by this time next year, within its current range.
As for the S&P 500, the CEOs do not forecast much movement. The most popular guess for the S&P 500 value one year from now is between 6,750 and 7,000, again within its current range. However, half of all CEOs forecast that the S&P 500 will climb in value by the end of next year, compared to only 20 percent who expect a decrease.
Now that bitcoin has pushed its way into the mainstream with the help of the current administration, we decided to track CEO predictions for its value. In December 2024 Bitcoin finally surpassed the magic $100,000 level just as CEOs were asked to predict where it will go from here. More than a third of CEOs expected it to hover between $90,000 and $110,000; 37 percent predicted the value will move above current levels; and 30 percent expected a drop. The 14 percent that predicted the value to be between $75,000 and $90,000 were correct, with its current value sitting around $90,000. But who knows? By the time this is published, it could rally—or drop—once again.
For bitcoin’s value in 2026, equal proportions of CEOs (34 percent each) expect the value to either drop slightly to between $75,000 and $90,000, or climb slightly to between $90,000 and $110,000. And almost equal proportions expect it to rally further above $110,000 (at 15 percent) or drop below $75,000 (at 16 percent).
CEOs had the right idea with their predictions about inflation once again in 2025 (they have a pretty good record). The most popular response was that inflation would be between 2.5 and 3 percent, selected by 37 percent of the CEOs polled. And the most recent figures show inflation at 3.01 percent so, the 27 percent that predicted inflation above 3 percent might have a winner’s stake as well.
Where will inflation be at the end of 2026? CEOs are split: 40 percent believe that it will remain within the same range that it is now at 2.5 to 3 percent, while 38 percent of CEOs expect inflation to climb above 3 percent next year. This is 10 percentage points higher than the fraction that forecast inflation above 3 percent last December, when inflation was hovering around 2.9 percent.
Some 59 percent of CEOs said that by December 2025, the fed funds rate would be over 4 percent—about the same levels as 2024. For the majority of 2025, the 43 percent of CEOs who predicted rates between 4 and 5 percent would be correct. However, the late October rate cuts marked the first time the fed funds rate fell below 4 percent since 2022. A subsequent December rate cut brought the target down by 0.25, meaning only 35 percent of CEOs predicted this one correctly. Good luck next year.
There seems to be a pattern emerging with CEOs’ predictions for 2026: They do not forecast much change. When asked where the Fed would set interest rates, two-thirds of CEOs do not see rates coming down below 3 percent for another year, at least. Only 19 percent predict rates below 3 percent by year-end 2026, while 14 percent predict another rate hike.
In the fourth year of asking this question, the war in Ukraine sadly continues. In 2024, 65 percent of CEOs predicted a brokered halt to the war by the end of 2025 vs. only 17 percent who forecasted the same in 2023. A quarter of CEOs forecasted a continued slog and unfortunately, no deal has been reached yet.
Results for predictions about the war in Ukraine have completely flipped from one year ago. Now the majority of CEOs (55 percent) predict continued fighting, while only 39 percent forecast a brokered halt, down 40 percent since last year.
An unlikely duo emerged in the fall of 2024 as Donald Trump secured the presidential election with Elon Musk by his side. When we asked CEOs to predict the course of their relationship, they were split almost exactly down the middle. In this case, the minority was correct, with 46 percent who expected Musk to get the boot or leave of his own volition by now. (For the record, Musk didn’t make it six months.)
Now that the Trump-Musk relationship is out of the news, we can shift our attention to the 2026 midterm elections. For next year, 59 percent of CEOs predict Democrats will emerge victorious, while 41 percent predict Republican control of the House. While not as split as their forecasts on the Trump-Musk relationship, there is still a fairly stark split where it could be anyone’s game.
The CEO Confidence Index is America’s largest monthly survey of chief executives. Each month, Chief Executive surveys CEOs across America, at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
Decades of strategic investment has propelled Virginia to the forefront of the global tech landscape.…
Boards can no longer treat immigration enforcement as a distant policy fight; raids, protests and…
Even in a mature industry, changes are coming fast. CEO Lefenfeld shares his playbook for…
Extraordinary performance doesn’t come from pressure—it comes from leaders who invest without conditions. Unconditional generosity…
The mood inside an organization often mirrors the mindset of its leader—and that emotional undercurrent…
New data from Chief Executive’s Financial Performance Benchmark Report reveals nearly one-third of companies are…