Here are some reasons to be skeptical of the accuracy of political polls:
While polls are unreliable in deciphering public sentiment, they can certainly help sway public opinion. Some of the luminaries in the world of polling have admitted as much. For instance, when Senator Ted Kennedy announced that he would run for president in 1979, Louis Harris, founder of Lou Harris and Associates said, “I am going to elect the next president.”
First, social validation is one of the primary tenets of human behavior. People have a tendency to conform their views to that of the majority, in part because relying on the supposed wisdom of the crowd relieves one of making a deviating decision. When the polls indicate that one candidate is consistently and overwhelmingly favored among the electorate, the results can be demoralization among the underdog’s supporters, complacency among the front-runner’s supporters as well as changes in fund raising ability and media coverage.
Another tenet of behavioral economics is called the “mere-measurement effect” which holds that when researchers measure people’s intentions, they affect the participant’s conduct. Thus, if pollsters ask an indifferent voter for whom he will vote, he is more inclined to cast his vote according to his whimsical response simply by virtue of having expressed that intention.
Most Americans would agree that the major media outlets help form opinion. Thus, when the media conducts their own polls, they are no longer reporting the news, they are making it. Among the major news organizations that have either developed their own polls or who regularly commission polls for their exclusive use are CNN, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Time, Newsweek, USA Today, The Los Angeles Times, and the Associated Press.
When reading results from polls, think more about the message that the sponsor is trying to convey than what your fellow citizens are thinking.
Johnson Controls CEO Oliver has led a corporate transformation focused on making buildings greener.
In this edition of our Corporate Competitor Podcast, leadership speaker and storytelling expert Don Yaeger…
Boards are being held to a higher standard regarding risk. A more thorough strategy may…
If you're experiencing burnout not because you're overworked, but because you're underinspired, it might be…
When companies elevate the role, they reap significant benefits. Here are five critical ways it…
CEO Ball has led early decoupling from China and diversification that ties into today’s infrastructure…