U.S. Manufacturers Report Boosted Confidence In October After Months Of Decline 

After consecutive declines in August and September, confidence among manufacturing CEOs has rebounded in October, supported by strong order backlogs and renewed business development. At the same time, leaders continue to report the organizational drag of geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility. 

According to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index survey, conducted October 7 and 8, manufacturing CEOs rate current business conditions a 5.6 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. Up 24 percent from last month’s poor rating of 4.5, this is the closest manufacturers have been to recuperating the March 2025 nosedive in current confidence. 

When looking at what they forecast over the next twelve months, manufacturers predict improving conditions, forecasting a rise to 5.9 out of 10 by this time next year—just shy of the 6.0 rating provided by non-manufacturers. This is the second-most-optimistic prediction provided since the plummet, dwarfed only by July’s 6.3/10 forecast. 

Many manufacturers attribute this newfound confidence to expanded backlogs and continued consumer demand. The CEO of a mid-size industrial manufacturing firm reported “the backlog … gives us [the] highest ever level of business through early 2027 … Our spare parts and consumable services for the systems and tools we have at client sites are … continuing to grow in North America.” 

Others echo this sentiment: Randy Sadler, CEO of connectivity and automation products manufacturer Weidmuller, said his 8/10 forecast of future conditions is motivated by “data center growth” and other business development initiatives. 

In line with this boosted sentiment, respondents have become more optimistic that the economy will experience either strong or mild growth over the next six months—4 and 36 percent, respectively. Still, they continue to remain less optimistic than their non-manufacturing peers at large. 

Despite these improvements, a strong minority—30 percent of manufacturers—still forecast a mild recession or slowdown. 

Much of this may have to do with sector-specific factors placing certain types of manufacturers at a disadvantage. Mark Rutledge, President and CEO of laboratory equipment manufacturer World Precision Instruments, reports that there is “weak demand in life sciences due to decreased research funding.” 

The majority of this optimism can again be attributed to domestic manufacturers, as a comparative analysis shows that 37 percent of respondents with global operations indeed predict a mild recession in the coming months. Compared with just 10 percent of domestic-exclusive manufacturers, this disparity is telling. 

According to Matt Shieman, President of Aerospace Composites Solutions, a firm with operations in Europe, Asia and Canada, “customers [are] not committing to large orders” due to “a lot of uncertainty in the market today regarding the U.S. economy and global trade.” 

Other global manufacturers echoed this sentiment, citing tariff stressors and “gloomy unemployment.” 

THE YEAR AHEAD 

Year ahead forecasts are the most optimistic they’ve been in months, showing strong growth after a period of steady decline. 

• 53 percent of manufacturers expect to increase their profits in the year ahead, up 4 percent since last month. 

• 62 percent of respondents forecast a rise in revenues over the next year, up 3 percent since September. 

• 39 percent expect to deploy more capital over the next year—an increase of 3 percent. 

• Hiring is up 38 percent since last month—36 percent of respondents now expect to add to their headcount by this time next year. 

Of particular note this month is the rise of global manufacturers who expect increases to revenues and profits over the next year, which was steadily below the proportion of domestic-exclusive CEOs for months. This is ironic, considering the increased stressors they face by being involved in international trade networks. 

About the CEO Confidence Index  

Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/