CEO Rating of Current Business Conditions Hits Multi-Year Trough

“We are seeing many customers pull back spending with market volatility, but others are increasing investment to grab a bigger share of the market. I see that more of the latter is beginning to happen,” says Gavan Thorpe, CEO of Boostability, an advertising company, who expects business conditions to pick up to a 7 out of 10 over the next year, an increase from the 6 rating he gives current conditions.  

Scott O’Brien, Principal and Board Chair, Lord Aeck Sargent Planning & Design, Inc., agrees with Thorpe that conditions will improve. He explains his optimism, sharing, “Despite a weak private sector, our institutional work has been solid, and is providing a strong backlog.” 

O’Brien and Thorpe are a part of the 41 percent of CEOs who forecast improving conditions this month, up from only 32 percent in October. The measure is now only 7 percent off its July high of 44 percent who forecast improving conditions 12 months from now but still, a majority of CEOs have been predicting steady or worsening conditions since March of 2021.  

“Interest rates and cash flow are concerns for many businesses. The national debt load and consumer debt are starting to build,” lists Michael Santelli, CEO at Converged Security Solutions, a technology company. He says, “Plus, election year will mean anxiety in the early stages of a recession,” adding to the list of elements driving his forecast for business 12 months from now as a 3 out of 10 or “weak”.  

Gary Shapiro, president and CEO at Consumer Technology Association, agrees that the business environment 12 months down the line will look “weak”. He lists the elements driving his unfavorable outlook, “There is a presidential election between two weak candidates, a Mideast war and rise of anti-semitism risk and uninformed youth. High interest rates. Globally weak economy. Rocky China-US relationship.” 

When there is a plethora of reasons to have a less-than-favorable outlook of the future of business conditions, some CEOs still attempt to find the silver-lining amid the chaos. Such as Steven Vitale, CEO of Midwest Industrial Supply, Inc, an environmental services company. Even though he expects conditions to deteriorate 12 months from now, he explains, “While there continues to be global challenges that could have a negative effect on the U.S. economy in 2024 (ex. Russia/Ukraine, China, Israel/Hamas, U.S. election, etc.), our business environment appears to be resilient thus far and I am hopeful that this resilience will carry our business through 2024.”