Strategy

A Look Back At CEO Confidence Levels

October 2002. A year after 9/11. The House votes to authorize the use of force in Iraq;
terrorists kill 182 people in Bali. The Dow Jones Industrial Average spirals down to a multi-year low of 7,286. Amid the turmoil, Chief Executive launches a monthly poll of U.S. CEOs asking about your outlook for business and the economy.

We’re all familiar with that old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. Well, these
times have been nothing if not interesting. From spiking in late 2003 on word that the Iraq war was won (“Mission Accomplished!”) only to sink to an all-time low in 2008 as we plunged into the Great Recession, our CEO Confidence Index has reflected the era. Yet, somehow, through innovation, pluck and just sheer luck, we’ve survived, and sometimes even thrived. Ten years after TARP, revenues are shaping up nicely and CEO confidence is nearing all-time highs.

CEOs tell us growth is being fueled by the corporate tax cut, which is freeing up cash for
investments that have been back-burnered for a decade. Eight out of 10 CEOs we polled in
February say they expect both revenues and profits to rise over the next 12 months. But it isn’t just that. The momentum we’re seeing is built on years of hard work. These have been tough, transformational times for CEOs, and you responded.

So it seems as good a time as any to take a breath, take stock and look back for a minute. Congratulations. You made it. But if the last decade-plus has taught us anything, it’s this: Enjoy the good times while you can. You never know when things will get interesting again.


Melanie C. Nolen

Melanie C. Nolen is head of research at Chief Executive Group. She oversees custom and proprietary research projects, including our annual CEO & Senior Executive Compensation Report, Compensation Trends Report and Financial Benchmarks Report, and acts as research editor for Chief Executive and Corporate Board Member magazines, as well as sister sites CFO Leadership and StrategicCHRO360.

Share
Published by
Melanie C. Nolen

Recent Posts

From Supply Chain Chaos To Global Growth: How Women Executives Are Shaping Industrial Manufacturing

Innovation in manufacturing is not just about machines or technology; it’s about people.

2 days ago

CEO Health Checklist: The 8 Brain Must-Dos

It controls thought, movement and emotion. Here’s how to protect it and maximize its performance.

2 days ago

Pivoting To Partnerships: Why A Partner-Led Sales Model Can Fuel Your Growth

Changing sales strategy requires a new mindset, different skills and a thoughtful approach to execution.…

5 days ago

Why I Treat Talent Like A Dynamic Asset, Not A Fixed Resource

Freedom Trail Capital co-founder Samyr Laine on the qualities he looks for in founders—from adaptability…

5 days ago

Leadership Lessons From The Football Field: Build Teams, Not Followings

Both on the field and in the C-Suite, success hinges on work ethic and a…

6 days ago

A CEO’s Guide To Sustaining Change Over Time

Resistance doesn’t end after kickoff—it evolves. To lead lasting transformation, CEOs must stop treating pushback…

6 days ago