Chief Executive Research
Despite concerns over tariff policies, most U.S. manufacturing CEOs surveyed by Chief Executive in May expect conditions to improve ahead, with many predicting a return to certainty in the medium term following short-term disruptions. However, a sizeable portion voice that damage to trade and business will not be mended even in the medium term, leading to inflation, job loss and a recession.
According to our latest CEO Confidence Index survey, conducted May 8–10, manufacturing leaders rate future business conditions at 5.4 out of 10—up 5 percent from April, on the back of a 10 percent gain from March. However, their overall assessment of current business conditions dipped slightly by 1 percent to 4.7, and both indicators remain 20 percent below January levels.
While international exposure continues to shape CEO perspectives on the tariffs’ impact, the divide converged this month, with both U.S.-only manufacturers and those with global exposure expecting more ease of business as the climate clears and they can operate with more certainty.
“Uncertainty around tariffs will eventually ease. People will gain more confidence in the administration once the noise surrounding tariffs subsides,” says Andrew Ly, chair and cofounder at Ly Brothers, about the current state of business. He goes on to caution, “However, it’s a double-edged sword—if not addressed now, the country’s situation will continue to deteriorate. Taking action today is better than doing nothing.”
CEOs in industries other than manufacturing also gained confidence in May, and their prediction for future business conditions matches that of CEOs in manufacturing after a nearly 5 percent split last month.
This month, almost half (49 percent) of manufacturing CEOs expect a recession of some kind over the next six months, a slightly higher proportion than the 45 percent of CEOs in industries other than manufacturing who agree.
This proportion has fallen significantly from last month, when 60 percent of manufacturers forecasted a recession in the short-term. Last month, this sentiment was mostly driven by manufacturers with global exposure, of whom 72 percent forecasted a recession compared to only 34 percent of U.S.-only manufacturers.
This month, U.S.-only and global manufacturers have much less of a divide, with the only significant difference being that 8 percent of globally exposed manufacturers forecast a severe recession compared to 0 percent of those with U.S.-only operations.
When discussing expectations for how business conditions will impact their respective company’s revenues over the next 12 months, U.S.-only manufacturers do tend to be a bit more optimistic in their corporate projections than their peers with global exposure: 57 percent of U.S.-only manufacturing CEOs project increases in revenues compared to 52 percent of globally operating manufacturers. This is compared to 55 percent vs 46 percent, respectively, in April.
Counter to last month when the majority, regardless of where operations are based, expected a decline in profits over the next 12 months, in May, 52 percent of U.S.-only manufacturers now expect profit growth vs. 42 percent for those with international exposure (compared to only 30 percent in April).
The divide between domestic-only vs. international exposure is still very stark when it comes to headcount and capital expenditures.
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
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