Chief Executive Research
For business leaders holding their breath about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s massive tariff rollout, hopes of potential dealmaking sparked a small rebound in Chief Executive’s May CEO Confidence survey.
The 300 CEOs we polled across various sectors May 6 and 7 now rate current business in the U.S. at 5 out of 10, up 9 percent from their April rating of 4.6 / 10. And CEOs’ forecasts for what those conditions will be 12 months from now also improved to 5.4 / 10, up 8 percent from April numbers (5.0 / 10).
Both indicators are still well off where they were in January, by 21 and 22 percent respectively, and while historical data shows CEOs tend to show greater optimism at the start of a new year, a comparison of the first five months of each year on record finds 2025 has the lowest level of CEO confidence since 2010.
Driving the May uptick is the belief that the current trade negotiations will have settled by this time next year and that the U.S. economy is healthy enough to sustain some of the headwinds created in the process.
“We have way too many great things in the pipeline for us not to succeed,” explained one CEO who expects business conditions in the U.S. to be “Excellent,” at 10 out of 10, by this time next year, citing improvements in the regulatory environment, the large investments being made in the U.S. and state of the labor market in the private sector. “I have great faith that the economy is growing and humming. The future looks incredibly bright.”
“I believe the tariff issues will be past us, energy prices and regulatory pressures will continue to decline, and we will be moving forward in an upbeat world,” said Brian Lish, President of AG RX, echoing 50 percent of those polled who believe business conditions will be better by this time next year (though the extent of that improvement varies greatly).
For others, optimism stems from the opportunities provided by the current environment. “Chaos and uncertainty create massive opportunity for people and companies with a microeconomic focus,” said John Ratliff, CEO of Full Circle.
Recession fears also decreased in May: 46 percent of CEOs we polled expect a recession over the coming six months, down from 62 percent in April. Of those polled 27 percent said they now expect to see the economy grow in the second half of 2025, up from 23 percent in April.
Asked how these factors would likely impact their respective companies, CEOs shared improving forecasts in May:
Since 2002, Chief Executive Group has been polling hundreds of U.S. CEOs at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile our CEO Confidence Index data. The Index tracks confidence in current and future business environments, based on CEOs’ observations of various economic and business components. For additional information about the Index and prior months data, visit ChiefExecutive.net/category/CEO-Confidence-Index/
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